Match Details

• Teams: France Women vs. England Women
• Competition: UEFA Women’s Euro 2025, Group D
• Date and Time: Saturday, July 5, 2025, at 8:00 PM BST
• Venue: Stadion Letzigrund, Zurich, Switzerland

Team Form and Recent Performances

France Women

• Recent Form: France are in exceptional form, winning all eight of their matches in 2025 across all competitions, scoring 22 goals and keeping six clean sheets. Their most recent match was a 3-2 comeback friendly win over Brazil, with Grace Geyoro scoring twice and Marie-Antoinette Katoto netting the winner. They topped their Nations League group, winning all six matches against Norway, Iceland, and Switzerland.
• Key Performers:
  • Marie-Antoinette Katoto: The PSG striker, with eight goals in her last 11 matches, is a lethal presence in the box and will lead the attack.
  • Grace Geyoro: The midfielder’s brace against Brazil highlights her ability to influence games from midfield.
  • Sandy Baltimore: Versatile as a wing-back or winger, she has five goals and six assists for France in 2025, making her a key creative threat (11/5 to score or assist).
  • Griedge Mbock Bathy: A guaranteed starter at centre-back, providing defensive stability alongside Elisa De Almeida.
• Tactical Setup: Under new manager Laurent Bonadei, France employ a 4-3-3 formation, focusing on high pressing and crossing into the box to exploit Katoto’s finishing. Their attack is potent, failing to score two or more goals only once in 2025.
• Injuries/Suspensions: No reported injury concerns, with a fully fit squad. Notably, Bonadei excluded veterans Wendie Renard, Kenza Dali, and Eugenie Le Sommer, signaling a shift to a younger squad.
• Predicted XI (4-3-3): Peyraud-Magnin; De Almeida, Mbock Bathy, Lakrar, Bacha; Geyoro, Jean-Francois, Karchaoui; Diani, Katoto, Baltimore.

England Women

• Recent Form: England, the defending Euro 2022 champions, have had mixed results, winning three, drawing one, and losing two of their last six matches in the Nations League, finishing behind Spain. They thrashed Jamaica 7-0 in a recent friendly, with goals from Ella Toone (2), Lucy Bronze, Georgia Stanway, Alessia Russo, Aggie Beever-Jones, and Beth Mead. However, they’ve struggled away from home, failing to win their last four matches outside England, though their last away win was a 2-1 victory over France in June 2024.
• Key Performers:
  • Alessia Russo: The Arsenal striker, with 23 goals in 51 international appearances, is in top form after winning the WSL Golden Boot (12 goals) and scoring seven in the Champions League. She’s a strong bet to score at 2/1 or 9/4.
  • Georgia Stanway and Keira Walsh: The midfield duo provides control and creativity, crucial for breaking down France’s press.
  • Beth Mead and Lauren Hemp: Both wingers are dangerous, with Mead scoring and Hemp providing dynamism in the Jamaica friendly.
  • Leah Williamson: The captain anchors a defense hit by absences but remains world-class.
• Tactical Setup: Sarina Wiegman, with a perfect 12/12 record at the Women’s Euros, uses a 4-2-3-1 to balance defensive solidity with attacking flair. England’s set-piece defending needs improvement after vulnerabilities shown against Jamaica.
• Injuries/Suspensions: Mary Earps and Fran Kirby have retired, and Millie Bright is absent for mental health reasons. Lauren James and Ruby Mace are recovering but may not start. Niamh Charles and Lotte Wubben-Moy are also out.
• Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Hampton; Bronze, Williamson, Greenwood, Carter; Stanway, Walsh; Mead, Toone, Hemp; Russo.

Head-to-Head (H2H) Analysis

• Overall Record: France lead with 13 wins to England’s 5 in 27 matches. However, England have won three of the last six encounters (L3), a significant improvement from winning only two of their first 21 games against France (D9, L10).
• Recent Encounters:
  • June 2024: England won 2-1 away in Euro 2025 qualifying, with Beth Mead scoring. France won the reverse fixture 2-1 at St. James’ Park.
  • Euro Meetings: France beat England 3-0 in the 2013 group stage, but England won 1-0 in the 2017 quarter-final via Jodie Taylor’s goal.
• Key Trend: England are aiming for back-to-back wins over France for the first time since 1974. The last six meetings have been split evenly (3 wins each), indicating a tight contest.
• Sentiment on X: Posts highlight the match’s pivotal nature for England’s title defense, with France’s attacking form and England’s defensive absences raising concerns for the Lionesses.

Match Analysis

• France’s Strengths:
  • Attacking Prowess: France’s eight-match winning streak and 22 goals in 2025 showcase their firepower. Katoto’s poaching and Baltimore’s versatility make them a constant threat.
  • Defensive Record: Six clean sheets in eight matches suggest a robust backline, led by Mbock Bathy and Peyraud-Magnin.
  • Momentum: Their flawless 2025 record and Nations League dominance give them confidence.
• France’s Weaknesses:
  • Big-Game Struggles: France have never reached a major tournament final, with their best Euro finish being the 2022 semi-finals.
  • Squad Transition: Excluding veterans like Renard and Le Sommer may impact leadership in high-stakes matches.
• England’s Strengths:
  • Tournament Pedigree: Sarina Wiegman’s 12/12 Euro record and England’s 2022 title win highlight their ability to perform in major tournaments.
  • Attacking Talent: Russo, Mead, and Hemp can exploit any defensive lapses, as shown in their 7-0 rout of Jamaica.
  • Recent H2H Success: England’s 2-1 win in France last year proves they can compete away against Les Bleues.
• England’s Weaknesses:
  • Defensive Disruptions: Missing Earps, Bright, Charles, and Wubben-Moy weakens their backline, with set-piece vulnerabilities noted in the Jamaica friendly.
  • Inconsistent Form: Only three wins in six matches in 2025 and losses to Germany, Belgium, and Spain raise concerns.

Key Battles

1. Marie-Antoinette Katoto vs. Leah Williamson: Katoto’s box presence will test Williamson’s organizational skills, especially on crosses, where England have shown weakness.
2. Sandy Baltimore vs. Lucy Bronze: Baltimore’s pace and creativity on the left could challenge Bronze, who must balance defensive duties with her attacking runs.
3. Georgia Stanway/Keira Walsh vs. Grace Geyoro: Control of the midfield will be crucial, with Stanway and Walsh’s passing range facing Geyoro’s dynamism.

Statistical Insights

• France:
  • Scored 2+ goals in seven of eight matches in 2025.
  • Unbeaten in their last 10 Euro group stage matches (W6, D4).
  • Opta supercomputer gives them a 15.1% chance of winning the tournament, third behind Spain (27.6%) and England (16.2%).
• England:
  • Scored 5+ goals in three of their last five matches, including 7-0 vs. Jamaica.
  • Unbeaten in their last 10 Euro group stage matches (W6, D4) since a 2009 loss to Germany.
  • Opta supercomputer slightly favors England to win (probability not specified but noted as a “slight edge”).
• Both Teams to Score (BTS): Predicted with 64% likelihood, given France’s scoring streak and England’s attacking output. Over 2.5 goals is predicted with 63% likelihood.

Prediction

This match is a blockbuster opener in Group D, pitting two tournament favorites against each other. France’s flawless 2025 form, potent attack, and full squad give them momentum, but England’s tournament experience under Wiegman and recent H2H success (2-1 win in 2024) make them a formidable opponent. The Lionesses’ defensive absences (Earps, Bright) and set-piece issues could be exploited by Katoto and Baltimore, but Russo’s goal-scoring form and Wiegman’s tactical nous keep England competitive.

The Opta supercomputer gives England a slight edge, but many sources predict a draw due to the tight H2H record and the tendency of reigning champions to draw their Euro opener (last three holders drew: Germany 2013, 2017; Netherlands 2022). Both teams’ attacking quality suggests goals, with BTS and Over 2.5 goals likely. However, England’s resilience and Wiegman’s perfect Euro record tilt the prediction slightly in their favor for a narrow victory, as backed by several sources.

Final Prediction: France Women 2-1 England Women

• France to win

• Both Teams to Score

• Alessia Russo to score anytime

• Sandy Baltimore to score or assist