Match Details

• Teams: Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund
• Competition: FIFA Club World Cup 2025, Quarter-Final
• Date and Time: Saturday, July 5, 2025, at 4:00 PM ET (9:00 PM BST, 10:00 PM CEST)
• Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA
• Broadcast: Live on DAZN (free streaming for all matches), Channel 5 (UK), and Al Jazeera Sport (live text commentary from 6:00 PM ET).

Team Form and Recent Performances

Real Madrid

• Recent Form: Real Madrid have been unbeaten in their last 16 FIFA Club World Cup matches (W14, D2), showcasing their dominance in this competition. They topped their group with a 1-1 draw against Al-Hilal, a 3-1 win over Pachuca, and a 3-0 victory against Red Bull Salzburg. In the Round of 16, they secured a 1-0 win over Juventus, with Gonzalo García scoring the decisive goal.
• Key Performers:
  • Gonzalo García: The young striker has been a breakout star, scoring three goals in four Club World Cup matches, including the winner against Juventus. He’s been involved in at least one goal in every match this tournament.
  • Jude Bellingham: Facing his former club, Bellingham has provided assists in both of his previous games against Dortmund, including the 2024 Champions League final.
  • Kylian Mbappé: Returning from illness, Mbappé came off the bench against Juventus for 22 minutes. His starting status is uncertain, but his presence adds significant firepower.
  • Trent Alexander-Arnold: The new signing delivered his first assist for Real Madrid against Juventus, providing a pinpoint cross for García’s goal.
• Tactical Setup: Under new manager Xabi Alonso, Real Madrid have transitioned to a 3-5-2 formation, emphasizing possession and tactical discipline. They had 57% possession and 21 shots (11 on target) against Juventus, indicating growing comfort with Alonso’s system.
• Injuries/Suspensions: David Alaba (muscle), Eduardo Camavinga (tendon), Ferland Mendy (muscle), and Endrick (hamstring, doubtful) are sidelined. No suspensions.

Borussia Dortmund

• Recent Form: Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 11 competitive matches (W9, D2), including a strong run to top Group F with a 0-0 draw against Fluminense, a 4-3 win over Mamelodi Sundowns, and a 1-0 victory over Ulsan Hyundai. They edged past Monterrey 2-1 in the Round of 16, thanks to a first-half brace from Serhou Guirassy.
• Key Performers:
  • Serhou Guirassy: The Guinean striker is in scintillating form, scoring 12 goals in his last 10 appearances, including a brace against Monterrey. He’s second only to Benfica’s Ángel Di María (4 goals) in the tournament’s scoring charts with three goals.
  • Karim Adeyemi: Provided two assists against Monterrey, creating dangerous chances from wide areas. His pace will be crucial on the counter.
  • Gregor Kobel: The goalkeeper has been solid, with Dortmund keeping clean sheets in four of their last seven matches across all competitions.
• Tactical Setup: Managed by Niko Kovač, Dortmund also employ a 3-5-2 system, focusing on quick transitions and wing-back play through Julian Ryerson and Daniel Svensson. Their attack relies heavily on Guirassy’s finishing and Adeyemi’s creativity.
• Injuries/Suspensions: Jobe Bellingham is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Nico Schlotterbeck (knee), Emre Can (groin), and Salih Özcan (knee) are injured. Jamie Bynoe-Gittens is doubtful due to an illness and a potential transfer to Chelsea.

Head-to-Head (H2H) Analysis

• Overall Record: In 17 meetings, Real Madrid lead with 8 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses to Dortmund.
• Recent Encounters:
  • Real Madrid have won their last four matches against Dortmund, including a 2-0 victory in the 2024 UEFA Champions League final and a 5-2 win in the 2024-25 Champions League group stage.
  • Dortmund’s last victory over Real Madrid was in the 2013 Champions League semi-final (4-3 on aggregate), powered by Robert Lewandowski’s four-goal performance in the first leg.
• Key Trend: Real Madrid have outscored Dortmund 7-2 in their last two encounters and are unbeaten in their last six meetings (W4, D2).
• Sentiment on X: Posts on X highlight Real Madrid’s dominance, noting Dortmund haven’t beaten them since April 2014. Odds reflect this, with Real Madrid at 2/7 to qualify and Dortmund at 5/2.

Match Analysis

• Real Madrid’s Strengths:
  • Attacking Depth: With players like Vinícius Júnior, Bellingham, and potentially Mbappé, Real Madrid’s attack is formidable. Gonzalo García’s emergence adds unpredictability.
  • Defensive Solidity: They’ve kept clean sheets in four of their last six matches, with their defense restricting Juventus to just six shots.
  • Historical Edge: Real Madrid’s unbeaten record in the Club World Cup (16 matches) and their recent dominance over Dortmund give them a psychological advantage.
• Real Madrid’s Weaknesses:
  • Adjustment Period: The team is still adapting to Alonso’s 3-5-2 system, which led to a slower, more controlled performance against Juventus that lacked flair at times.
  • Injury Concerns: Missing key players like Alaba, Camavinga, and Mendy could strain their squad depth.
• Borussia Dortmund’s Strengths:
  • Counter-Attacking Threat: Dortmund’s pacey wing-backs (Ryerson, Svensson) and forwards (Adeyemi, Guirassy) make them dangerous on the break, especially against a high-pressing Real Madrid side.
  • Form and Confidence: Their 11-match unbeaten run and Kovač’s tactical turnaround have boosted morale. Guirassy’s goal-scoring form is a major asset.
• Borussia Dortmund’s Weaknesses:
  • Defensive Fragility: Dortmund struggled defensively in the second half against Monterrey, conceding 14 shots and nearly losing their lead. Real Madrid’s attack could exploit this.
  • Key Absences: Jobe Bellingham’s suspension and injuries to Schlotterbeck, Can, and Özcan weaken their midfield and defense.

Key Battles

1. Jude Bellingham vs. Dortmund’s Midfield: Bellingham’s familiarity with Dortmund’s setup and his ability to influence games with assists and runs from midfield will be crucial. Dortmund may rely on Marcel Sabitzer or Julian Brandt to contain him.
2. Vinícius Júnior vs. Dortmund’s Defense: Vinícius has scored or assisted against Dortmund in recent meetings. His pace could trouble Dortmund’s backline, particularly without Schlotterbeck.
3. Serhou Guirassy vs. Real Madrid’s Defense: Guirassy’s clinical finishing will test Real’s backline, led by Antonio Rüdiger and Dean Huijsen. His ability to capitalize on limited chances could keep Dortmund in the game.

Statistical Insights

• Real Madrid:
  • Scored 8 goals in 4 Club World Cup matches (2 per game average).
  • Conceded 2 goals in 4 matches, with clean sheets against Salzburg and Juventus.
  • 59.7% chance of advancing, per Opta’s supercomputer.
• Borussia Dortmund:
  • Scored 7 goals in 4 Club World Cup matches (1.75 per game average).
  • Conceded 4 goals in 4 matches, with clean sheets against Fluminense and Ulsan.
  • 40.3% chance of advancing, including extra time or penalties.
• Both Teams to Score (BTS): Both teams have scored in 9 of Dortmund’s last 10 matches and 8 of Real Madrid’s last 10, suggesting a high likelihood of goals on both sides.

Prediction

This match pits Real Madrid’s star-studded squad and historical dominance against a resurgent Dortmund side with nothing to lose. Real Madrid’s superior attacking quality, led by Gonzalo García, Vinícius Júnior, and potentially Mbappé, combined with their defensive solidity, gives them the edge. Dortmund’s counter-attacking threat, driven by Guirassy and Adeyemi, could make this a close contest, but their defensive vulnerabilities and key absences (Jobe Bellingham, Schlotterbeck) may prove costly against Real’s relentless attack.

The Opta supercomputer favors Real Madrid (59.7% to advance), and their unbeaten record in the Club World Cup, coupled with four straight wins over Dortmund, supports this outlook. However, Dortmund’s recent form and ability to score consistently suggest they won’t go down without a fight. Expect a competitive match with goals on both sides, but Real Madrid’s depth and experience should see them through.

Final Prediction: Real Madrid 3-2 Borussia Dortmund

• Real Madrid to win

• Both Teams to Score : Yes

• Kylian Mbappe to score anytime